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Stop Asking If A Recession Is Coming
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If there's one thing I've learned in my ten-plus years of being a financial media personality (lol), it's that recessions are very good business for our industry. Just the threat of one — the whisper of the word, really — is like rocket fuel for algorithmic performance. People are searching for "recession" more than they have in years, along with plenty of other bleak macroeconomic terms. And with the absolute chaos that the stock market has seen in the first 100 days of Trump's presidency, it's not surprising that most people have the same question on their minds: when are things going to go from bad to worse?
That said, I've also been in this game long enough to know that the power of the word recession — the anxiety, and therefore clicks, that it can invoke — are not unique to our current era. In fact, if you look back through just our own library of content, we've done plenty on the subject well before Trump was reelected. Most millennials are also very familiar with The Great Recession, the sharp economic decline following the subprime mortgage crisis that stalled many of our entrees into adulthood. Long story short, this stuff isn't new to us, even if the context of our current moment feels very different.
I'm not here to tell you that if you are feeling anxious about the economy, you shouldn't be. Yes, recessions are cyclical; yes, there are many ways in which the 2008 crash eclipses anything we're currently experiencing (yet), but I am well aware of how stressful this moment is. I'm lucky enough as a business owner to not be in a sector where tariffs have much direct impact, but I know how many small businesses are acutely fearing for their very existence. I am also not a federal worker, but know many who have seen their entire livelihoods (and mission) wiped away overnight. And there are many, many more beyond that who don't have the luxury of looking at this moment as just another economic hiccup.
But that's the real issue, and the reason why the media panic around a potential recession feels more than a little cynical to me: what a recession actually isdepends on who you are when it happens. During the 2008 crash, for example, there were many people whose primary impact was not opening their portfolio statements for a year so they didn't have to be confronted with its depressed value. (Erin Lowry interviewed a banker who did just that in her investing book, actually.) At the same time, there were many people who lost their homes, their jobs, and much of their retirement savings right at the time they needed it. In every recession, there are people who become richer, people who lose it all, and people who remain relatively stable. That is just the nature of macroeconomic turbulence: it doesn't mean the same thing to every person experiencing it.
Similarly, even during "great" economic times — like the ones the Biden/Harris teams were famous for touting — there are many people already experiencing a recession in their personal finances. (While I would never say that economic hardship was the sole reason for Trump's second term, looking at global political trends post-pandemic, it's impossible to deny that the combination of inflation and depressed wages weren't a huge part of the phenomenon.) The point is, a "good" or "bad" economy may be more likely to impact you at a given time, but they are also liable to not impact you at all. Just like the stock market famously isn't the economy, a recession doesn't mean that anything will necessarily change for you.
And even if you are someone who stands to be greatly impacted by a coming recession, no one (not even me, a genius!) is capable of predicting exactly when and where it will occur. The constant stories you see in the media about if and when a recession is coming are as much about keeping your anxious eyeballs locked on the screen as they are about actually helping anyone. There are indicators, sure, and some very powerful voices in the space even give percentage probabilities to one occurring in the near term. But no one can know for sure, and the only thing history can say for certain is that the economy will take a dip at some point, likely on a cyclical basis. (And as far as expert percentages go, there were many very trusted voices indicating a 99% chance of Hillary Clinton winning the 2016 election, so...)
At the end of the day, the most important thing to do is operate your own personal finances in as calm and rational a way as possible. Should you be adjusting your strategy slightly to protect yourself and optimize for potential market downturns? Yes, probably, and we have an upcoming free workshop going over exactly that. Is constantly consuming scary news stories about the economy going to help you, whether or not a recession actually hits this year? Absolutely not. If anything, an obsessive focus on macro indicators we can't control is more likely to make us panic, which is the worst thing we can do for our actual money (and our mental health).
I spend the majority of my waking hours thinking and talking about money, and I start every morning with a financial news briefing. I know what it means to be steeped in this stuff, and how maddening it can feel to watch chaotic and unnecessary havoc be unleashed upon our economy. But this awareness of the money world has taught me that for all the noise we're constantly receiving, only a very small fraction of it is a signal we should actually be tuning into. A recession is just a word, like many other words that may or may not have a big impact on your life. Prepare, step back, and breathe, because our adult lives will contain many moments like this, and there are many fronts on which we need to be fighting — especially now. And the more we obsess over this one thing, the more we'll lose the political forest for the breaking headline trees.
— Chelsea
If the word "recession" conjures up feelings of financial anxiety for you, then make sure to join us May 20th for Recession Prepping Your Finances, a totally FREE workshop with our friends from Aura. While we can't control the economy, there's plenty we can do to weather the financial storm.
Join TFD Creative Director Holly Trantham & Ashley Feinstein Gerstley, CFP® (aka The Fiscal Femme), where they’ll cover the must-haves for financially (and mentally) preparing for a recession. Use code ‘TFD’ to access your ticket! Register here.
Welcome back to our weekly series, Ask A Financial Advisor with Kellen Thayer of Advisor.com! Dozens of members of the TFD community love and trust Advisor to help them on their financial journeys. Get $500 off your first year with Advisor by signing up through TFD! Click here to take our short quiz and schedule a FREE consultation call with Advisor today and never make another financial decision alone!
Q: What is your overall opinion on crypto? Should I invest in something like this?
A: Crypto can be exciting but is also highly speculative and volatile. It’s not something we recommend as a core part of your financial plan. Think of it as a high-risk experiment—like betting on a trendy startup. If you decide to invest in crypto, limit it to 5% or less of your total portfolio and only use money you can afford to lose.
Instead, focus the bulk of your investments on more stable, proven vehicles like index funds, ETFs, and diversified stock portfolios. These provide long-term growth with less risk. If you’re still intrigued by crypto, consider starting small and educating yourself thoroughly before diving in. The key is not to let “FOMO” drive your decisions—investing should always align with your goals and risk tolerance.
1) I’m on a huge fantasy book binge right now (honestly, when am I not?) and I need to share it with somebody! So, for my fellow TFD fans x fantasy-lover girlies, here it goes:
I started off with the full series of Sarah J. Maas’ A Court of Thorns and Roses–minus A Court of Silver Flames. I’m truly doing my best to like (or even stomach) Nesta but ooooh, you guys, the girl grinds my gears!
Then, I moved on to Rebecca Yarros’ The Empyrean series (think: Fourth Wing and Iron Flame) and am currently reading the latest release, Onyx Storm. Before I get ahead of myself though, I started and finished all 7 books of Sarah J. Maas’ Throne of Glass series which, with the titles being between 430 and 1000 pages, I’m really proud of. It was such a stellar series following all kinds of strong female leads and supporting characters. None of them “fit the mold” neatly and Maas explored a lot of super adult themes in such a thoughtful way. It has been so long since a series fully roped me in–I mean, I was brushing my teeth and reading at the same time, pookies!! Clearly, I can’t recommend the series enough.
Aside from Onyx Storm, I’m also currently reading Maas’ Crescent City series, starting off with book one, House of Earth and Blood. So… I’ve really been on a roll.
Getting lost in fantasy worlds is my happy place and always has been. Yes, I was the little girl that needed glasses in 4th grade because she’d strain her eyes reading Percy Jackson and Fablehaven late into the night and I have no shame. Glasses are cute on me anyway. ;) My message to all of you, my fellow fantasy lovers: don’t let anyone yuck your yum. It’s not “childish” to appreciate and want to explore the written pages of other worlds and ways of life. It’s on them if they can’t bring themselves to indulge their imaginations. You just focus on what brings you joy and don’t mind the haters.
2) We’re pretty fortunate at TFD to have such generous vacation days and I want to start actually appreciating that. Growing up as the eldest child in a Black, Caribbean-American household, it was very much frowned upon to take days off to rest so, this is requiring a lot of rewiring from me. But I deserve some fun, darn it! Consider my Google Flight alerts ON, especially for some hot spots in South America, Australia, and Europe. I’ve also signed up for Going and am loving it. I’ve been finding all kinds of cheap flights (like a $285 roundtrip flight from NY to Berlin and a $100 roundtrip flight to Reykjavik from Baltimore!). I haven't booked any just yet but just knowing they’re out there is so great and kind of settles my nerves about spending money on recreation. Like, at least I’m not breaking the bank for this activity I was always raised to view as irresponsible. The girlies that get it, get it.
3) My friends have been pushing me to start sharing my mantras in my recs so, I hope you enjoy. These are the ones that have been soothing me (and cracking me up) lately:
“What a blessing it is to be tired in the pursuit of a challenge of your own choosing.”
For when you’re feeling trapped: “I’m not in the darkness with them, they’re in the darkness with me. Sprinkle sprinkle.”
Write or say this one when poop hits the fan: “... and that’s OK.” Write or say this one when poop hits the fan. Something about saying it aloud really helps sprinkle some water on the fire.
This one’s great for those currently editing their friend groups: “May the bridges I burn light my way.”
“On my mama, on my hood, I look fly, I look good. Touch my swag. Wish you could.” Yeah, that’s a powerful spell right there if I’ve ever heard one.
Xx,
Alexa Claire
📣Events
May 20th: If you’re feeling anxious about all of the current recession talk, we’d love for you to join us May 20th for a totally FREE workshop: Recession Prepping Your Finances. This workshop is all about financially (and mentally) preparing for a recession, in partnership with our friends at Aura. While we can't control the economy, there's plenty we can do to weather the financial storm. Join TFD creative director Holly Trantham and an expert CFP for this 90 minute workshop. Replay available if you can’t join live but you must register ahead of time for access!
May 27th: NYC — Join us for Chelsea’s book launch party! Chelsea will be joined by NYT bestselling author Ashley C Ford for a fabulous evening celebrating Chelsea's sophomore romance novel, The High Dive. Ashley will lead a conversation with Chelsea around the novel's themes of love, money, and class politics, followed by interactive audience games, giveaways, and Q&A. Each guest will receive a signed copy of the book, as well as a gift bag featuring gifts from Dieux, Onsen, Poketo, and more! Only a few spots left! Get your tickets here.
🎥YouTube
Check out our April video essay, How Stanley Cups Predicted Our Black Mirror Economy, if you haven’t done so already! In the video, Chelsea dives into America’s problem with hyper-consumption.
We’re excited to bring back Asked & Answered for season 2! In this series, co-hosts Chelsea & Erin Lowry of Broke Millennial answer your personal money questions from budgeting and investing basics, to navigating the financial headlines of our current political climate. We have new episodes dropping weekly on Sundays. Make sure to tune in!
✨The Society
Join us TONIGHT for our May Society workshop, How To DIY Your Ideal Career. We're excited to have holistic career coach and friend of TFD, Danielle Nicholson, host this workshop TONIGHT at 6:30pm et. In today's crazy job market where everything feels out of your control, Danielle will help you identify and take back what is in your control when it comes to advancing your career. From clarifying your professional goals, to giving you actionable steps to build a portfolio (no matter your industry), Danielle will help you figure out what is and is not worth your time so you can navigate the current job market with more confidence.
Check out our latest Society podcast capsule series, TikTok Therapy! In this 4-part series Chelsea is joined by Samantha Dalton, clinical social worker, for a discussion about how mental health and therapy speak have been co-opted and distorted across social media. Each episode breaks down a different piece of toxic mental health advice. ALL episodes are available now!
Check out our latest guidebook, The Remote Work Reset: How To Improve Your WFH Habits. This 19-page guidebook was designed to help you make small but meaningful changes that add up. Inside you’ll find tips on improving your workspace, managing your time, setting boundaries, and boosting your energy throughout the day. Join The Society at the $9.99 tier for access.
The Society at TFD is our members-only community with access available on both YouTube and Patreon. Joining The Society is the best way to directly support TFD! The Society offers the exact same things on both platforms, so choose whichever one you prefer!
We offer 3 tier options:
The Society at TFD Lite: $2.99/month
Monthly office hours with Chelsea to chat and get your personal questions answered
Access to our monthly book club hosted by TFD Creative Director, Holly
Illustrated tech backgrounds every month
Access to Society Discord
The Society at TFD: $4.99/month — includes everything in the $2.99 tier plus:
Monthly ad-free extended director's cut videos from Chelsea
Exclusive members-only events and workshops
Complete post archive (including exclusive members-only videos of Chelsea ranting on different topics)
The Society Premium: $9.99/month — includes everything from the previous tiers plus:
Weekly newsletter from Chelsea
Monthly multi-page workbook/guidebook on a different topic each month
Members-only capsule podcasts